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Post by LIONS90045 on Dec 4, 2009 22:08:55 GMT -5
There are Stats and then again there are Stats.
I am an engineer by training (although I still have emotions) and here is what you see when you normalize everyones' game statistics as if each had played a 40-minute game.
I show Points per Game PPG), Rebounds per Game (RPG), Assists per Game (APG), Steals per Game (SPG), and Blocks per game.
Before reading on, who is leading is assists per game normalized to 40 minutes?
Player PPG
Viney 23.8
Chine 22.9
Osborne 18.8
Davis 18.6
Kalipinde 17.7
Young 15.2
Teel 15.1
Garibay 12.4
DuBois 12.2
Armstead 10.1
Diederichs 9.7
Hamilton 9.6
Sweezy 2.7
Player RPG
Garibay 10.2
Hamilton 9.6
Osborne 8.6
Sweezy 8.2
Viney 7.0
Young 6.7
Teel 6.1
Davis 5.6
Diederichs 5.6
Kalipinde 5.1
Armstead 3.9
DuBois 3.0
Chine 2.9
Player APG
Sweezy 16.4
Teel 7.8
Kalipinde 5.1
Hamilton 4.8
DuBois 3.0
Diederichs 2.8
Osborne 2.4
Viney 2.3
Davis 1.7
Young 1.3
Garibay 1.0
Armstead 0.5
Chine 0.0
Player Steals PG
Chine 2.9
Osborne 2.4
Kalipinde 2.1
Young 2.0
Teel 2.0
DuBois 2.0
Armstead 1.8
Diederichs 1.7
Davis 1.7
Hamilton 1.6
Viney 1.6
Sweezy 1.4
Garibay 1.0
Player Blocks PG
Garibay 1.9
Young 1.8
Osborne 1.6
Sweezy 1.4
Viney 1.3
Kalipinde 0.7
Armstead 0.6
Teel 0.3
Davis 0.3
Chine 0.0
DuBois 0.0
Diederichs0.0
Hamilton 0.0
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Post by LIONS90045 on Dec 4, 2009 22:16:10 GMT -5
Sorry I hit the wrong button there!
Some surprising stats here. Sweezy leading in stats if he played 40 minutes every game?
Chine and Osborne 2nd and 3rd top scorers in our lineup?
Plus leading in steals? Followed by Kalipinde!
Hamilton, Osborne and Sweezy looking good on the boards (after Edgar)!
Kalipinde and Hamilton following Teel in assists (all after Sweezy of course)!
Did I make an error in my excel file? Or do these numbers tell a story?
Who do you want on your court?
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Post by fanblade on Dec 4, 2009 23:15:56 GMT -5
I'd imagine you'd get some statistical noise from players who play very limited minutes. ie. Chine. For awhile he led the team in FG% at 100% ! ... looking closer at the numbers it was 1 for 1. I don't think even he'd say that 100% tells the real story. Not sure you'd be able to get much info from players seeing less than 5 minutes a game on average.
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Post by lmu2008 on Dec 5, 2009 0:04:50 GMT -5
Did you know that at the beginning of the MLB season some players bat over .500 after several games... Does that make them Hall of Famers? Do this same analysis by the second half of Conference play to get a big enough sample size. Even so, some players don't play many minutes so their stats are inflated/deflated. In fact, this post is ridiculous if it even hints that Sweezy is our best player in ANY category. Give me a break.
I love the kid's effort but honestly I could put out 110% effort and still suck on the court, does that mean I should be getting minutes? Any more walk on spots for me? :/
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Post by irishlion on Dec 5, 2009 1:23:57 GMT -5
WR - from one engineer to another, I'm laughing my bootie off. One of the earlist things I taught my kids was to not trust stats - because they can be manipulated to prove whatever you want proven. And if all else fails - pull out the DiffQ and prove 2+2=5.
There are too many contributing factors in those stats to take them at face value. I'd love to use it to prove Sweezy's worth (and maybe will anyway), but .... why not extrapolate personal fouls (to see how many minutes they could logically play anyway) and/or turnovers (to see what the negative side of their minutes might be).
Also - some of these players are getting "garbage" minutes, so their stats are being earned against lesser competition. For example - Viney's points against Tulsa or Montana are probably harder earned than Kelsey's against AAU.
Playtime with numbers if fun though....
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Post by LIONS90045 on Dec 5, 2009 11:45:13 GMT -5
No argument with any of he comments. Reliability of projections based on limited data are not terribly reliable. I doubt that Sweezy woud be assists leader if he played 40 minutes every game.
The numbers don't reflect overall defensive contributions either.
I agree some scoring was harder to come by than other scoring - this is really true.
But some of the indicators are revealing on some of the players' potential and just kind of fun to look at. The Osborne numbers may not be far off the true potential.
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Post by lmutourney2011 on Dec 6, 2009 18:18:22 GMT -5
Hey could you run those numbers for Turnovers? I think it could be telling. i wish we had a bone headed play and dumbass shot stat. They should be posted everytime we lose. Why do we need to know that drew scored 24 and kevin and jd had 12 each in a lose? obviously we didnt lose because they scored but because someone screwed up. Why not say such and such had 34 dumbass plays!
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Post by LIONS90045 on Dec 6, 2009 22:50:11 GMT -5
Here you go lmutourney
Player TO/G
Hamilton 4.0
Davis 3.9
Teel 3.6
Sweezy 3.3
Kalipinde 3.2
DuBois 3.1
Viney 2.9
Chine 2.9
Young 2.8
Armstead 2.4
Osborne 2.2
Garibay 1.9
Diederichs 0.8
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Post by LIONS90045 on Dec 6, 2009 22:55:14 GMT -5
Wrong button again!
As others will correctly note, based on limited data, some projections may not be accurate. These are current as of our Wyoming game.
Teel is not so far off the average considering his assists record.
Hamilton has not played enough to be significant.
Diederich looks good on this stat but all other stats are near the "0" also so he is not involved in much action.
For those with minutes in the log. Viney, Young, Osborne and Garibay look pretty good here.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Dec 6, 2009 22:57:30 GMT -5
And Davis I atribute to all those "travelling" calls in the Montant tournament on his bad heel.
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Post by irishlion on Dec 6, 2009 23:13:56 GMT -5
I would not expect post players to have too many turnovers - they just don't handle the ball as often as your guards and wings. So it's good to see that our big guys are not breaking that trend. Limited touches should mean less turnovers.
And I would normally expect our ball handlers to have the largest percentage of TO's. So Teel, Dubois and Kalipinde would be who I'd expect to be at the top of the list. ANd that would be acceptable, as long as their assist to TO ration is above 1 - I'm OK.
Viney's low average surprised me, considering the opportunities he has to create something - his TO number is low. That's good as well.
The others are all subjective. Last night's TO fiasco I blamed on the altitude. We just normally aren't THAT sloppy with the ball. It doesn't take too much to screw up your perceptions and timing, and that extra couple thousand feet can probably be blamed for a lot. (It took me most of today to accept that excuse. But I can live with it...)
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Post by lmutourney2011 on Dec 7, 2009 0:37:14 GMT -5
Hey thanks wrschinicke! I figured if you already had the program no trying to do it.
I wont hide it and I've made it obvious in the past I'm a brad supporter. just look at the stats. and i'll add in one of my own right now. He finished number 1 in FG% last year the only one over 40% at 42.. Now this year per 40 mins. He is number 4 on the boards playing from an outside position which the 3 ahead of him except a little bit of ashley are inside guys. number 4 in blocks. and the stat that i like isnt the APG but the A/TO thats at 4.96 right now! yeah he doesnt shoot much and his percentage is at 25% but thats on 1 of 4 shooting(one shoot was with less then one sec on the clock put back that he missed, one was a jumper, and one was a jumper after he previously made on.). This is my lobbying for coach, put him in the game, we know he plays defense which our team doesnt do, we know he doesnt score but the rest of our team does and we know that we won't waste possessions which most of our team does with turnovers and knucklehead plays. One thing that I learned with watching preseason action in the gym is that he wins his games. At one point last year he won all of his open gym games for 3 and a half weeks. Never with the same players. He is a glue guy, we have seen quiet a few in this league and the one that everyone knows is David Pendergaft. He wasnt anything special he played on teams with scorers but he was on the court when it mattered because he made the smart play not because he is a scoring threat. Let Brad play, tell me who else deserves it more!
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Post by irishlion on Dec 7, 2009 1:56:27 GMT -5
And to add to that - Coach Good keeps ripping out team for not being "tough" enough. SO - fix it, put your tough guy in the game. Cuz they don't come tougher than Sweezy.
He's steady, he's unselfish, and he's tough. Play him. Duh.
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Post by ironlions on Dec 7, 2009 11:47:02 GMT -5
The one knock against Sweezy is that anyone that scouts us can realize that he his a zero offensive threat, and they can use the guy that is suppose to guard him to double our better offensive players.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Dec 7, 2009 13:41:57 GMT -5
Iron - you are correct - teams slack off Brad and invite him to shoot the 15 footers. If he could make them, OK, but we haven't seen that. So the bottom line is a greater shooting threat on the Lions gets doubled on defense. How do we fix that?
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