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Post by slblions08 on Nov 11, 2014 23:08:39 GMT -5
We kind of have a tradition around here about predicting the year. Anybody willing to take a guess now the we have kinda/sorta seen the team? I'' go first.
I have
NCAA Bound, maybe 2 Seed
1. Gonzaga - on their own planet with talent.
NCAA Bound, somewhere between 10-12 seeds
2. BYU - They have shooters. They lose Erik Mika to a Mormon mission. And Collinsworth is coming off the ACL. But Hawes and Hawes (lil bro) should be solid, and they're getting some guys back from Mormon missions and some other recruits that will make them still tough.
3. St. Mary's - Transfers here also. And they ended the season well. They'll be better than last year I think, which makes them tough and they might flip-flop with BYU and at their home court could always knock off a Gonzaga.
NIT Bound
4. Portland - I like them better than San Diego because they'll have a core group of guys developing together at the right time. But they have size and San Diego doesn't quite have that. I think they have a nice trio of players. I think Reveno really messed up not moving to a bigger program, but if he gets his shine back this might be the time.
5. San Diego - They have the players to get hot and they have a good backcourt duo. But they never have an inside guy that can take over the paint. Not since Rob Jones.
Who avoids the play-in round?
6. Santa Clara - They're not deep (or at least I don't think so,) but they have one guy who can win games by himself in Brownridge and Keating has faith in him. Keating is in that weird space where he hasn't done anything yet, so maybe the heat is on.
7. San Francisco - I wouldn't be shocked if they finished 4th because Walters finds big guys, players with a specific skill set and gets them to win. But can he continually do that?
8. Loyola Marymount - If Evan Payne gets to play, they'll have a guy thats like a Brownridge of course with a tighter leash than in SCU. If Siame puts it together and Herman gets to play his game, they'll have a nice trio that could rise them above Santa Clara and maybe San Diego if they play D. Unfortunately, we could be physically outmatched by San Fran. Haven't seen them yet, but typically we are outmatched in that aspect.
At the bottom
9. Pepperdine - Should've been better, but they face the transfer of Malcolm Brooks who couldve been a nice combo with Stacy Davis. Brendan Lane is gone and he was a big piece.
10. Pacific- I don't know much about them but everybody points to them to being at the bottom as the program rebuilds.
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Post by ALioninWinter on Nov 12, 2014 2:56:18 GMT -5
Hard to find much to argue about with that analysis.
The teams where I think you might be wrong:
USF - I think they will be better than your rating. They've lost some very key players that drop them out of conference leaders contention (where they were last year). However I think the bottom half of the conference looks quite weak and I see the Dons staying well above the bottom half of the conference.
San Diego - they work together better than anyone in the league but I'm not impressed with their roster. Anderson is an ok point guard and Dee is an outstanding shooter. Schnadze played well in his first year. What else is there? Since they should be able to feast on the bottom teams, they'll probably challenge USF for 4th place but they really aren't that good.
Gonzaga - if the players can work well together no one else in the conference has a prayer.
Santa Clara - Brownridge should be a strong candidate for WCC MVP but someone on Gonzaga will get the nod. The Broncos don't have much else.
Pacific - even they say they won't be any good this year.
LMU - last Thursday was a depressing start
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Post by longtimelionfan on Nov 12, 2014 22:53:32 GMT -5
Predictions are fun and I plan to go on record with mine but don't have enough foundation to do so now. I'll circle back after this this first week of games.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Nov 12, 2014 23:19:36 GMT -5
I'm with Longtime - I don't know enough yet.
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Post by longtimelionfan on Nov 16, 2014 0:46:39 GMT -5
As I said I would, I'll now go record with my predictions.
1. Gonzaga: no news here; a true Final Four candidate. 2. BYU: second best overall but a five point win over Long Beach tells me the Cougers will lose to more than Zags in conference. 3. USF: first of the iffy picks; will Rex continue to re-invent a winning Dons team? 4. SMC: this is my least confident pick, based all on past and Waldow. Relying on three transfers and a 10 point win over Cal State LA tell you this could crater. 5. LMU: this weekend proved that it is no longer debatable, Lions are better. How much? My guess is somwhere between 3-6. 6. USD: Kok is better, Torreros have a big body back-up big, Dee and Anderson. If they can hold off Pilots and Waves, they win 6 seed. 7. POR: Not a believer; same squad as last year. Similar result. 8. PEP: Decisive win over Fresno means Waves better than Broncos. 9. SCU: Brownridge is great; Keating not so much. 10. Pacific: Doormat.
Likely, all is wrong after Zags but that is the way I see it now.
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Post by jackdaniels73 on Nov 18, 2014 0:09:58 GMT -5
watching Gonzaga and SMU tonight and thru 1 half Gonzaga is looking as advertised big and very good. Catching the last 5 mins of Pepperdine and DIII Cal Lutheran, and Pepperdine is not looking that impressive. So I am guessing the Fresno State win is more about Fresno then Pepperdine being markedly improved. Apparently Pepperdine had a 10 point lead on Cal Lu at half, but Cal Lu got the lead down to as little as 4 pts in the 2nd half. Pepperdine is pulling away in the final mins to win by 15, but it looks like CLU was hanging though and playing with Pepperdine.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Nov 18, 2014 20:22:13 GMT -5
Gonzaga went on to dominate the Larry Brown-coached #22 SMU. The Zags walk-on's got some decent minutes; need I say more?
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Post by ironlion on Nov 19, 2014 0:26:13 GMT -5
Zags look like a final four team.
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Post by vadlion on Nov 19, 2014 17:42:31 GMT -5
This is the best and deepest Gonzaga team in years. USF will also be a tough team with their frontline. No one will be able to match up with those guys. Looking forward to an exciting season.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Nov 19, 2014 22:08:38 GMT -5
I saw #1 Kentucky manhandle #5 Kansas last evening. I expect Kentucky to be in the final 4 also. Calipari has assembled a collection of remarkable "big" athletes that I think might be able beat the Lakers, although that's not saying much.
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Post by slblions08 on Nov 24, 2014 2:53:45 GMT -5
Yeah...went to the game tonight and Husky I'm not sure if you were watching, but LMU was only up by 7 points late in the game. That's not an attempt to avoid running up the score...that's an inability to break away from an NAIA school. That's not a great sign.
Don't get me wrong. I can see why some of you new to the program fell in love with Dunlap. This was my first game in person and its easy to tell that the team is coached to do very specific things. And its obvious that Dunlap has them buying into their roles thus far. I'll start with some positives.
As far as the recruits, our guys are bigger in person and look more physical than last year. Humphries is a big guy and looks strong. Herman was the most imposing. He's pretty built. Of course, while he might be a freshman in class, I believe he's 21 years old so he's the body of a junior. Spiers showed a nice little touch in the minutes he played. Simon looks like your prototpyical Euro point guard. I was bummed that Hayes didn't play, as the final piece of his recruiting class. I'll agree that in terms of getting guys last might, Dunlap brought in players that will play to his coaching style.
However, Dunlap is nearing ruining Evan Payne. I can see why Payne is frustrated. The offense that Dunlap runs is basically a more sophisticated version of Max Good's ring around the rosy. I think since Dunlap wants to move the ball so much and have everyone touch it he tells them not to take anything other than an open shot. So basically it runs the shot clock a bit and then they don't get a good shot. Simon and obviously Chase cannot drive into the paint to get people looks. There are no plays for corner 3s. No post-up Iso. Herman is completely underused. Siame is a monster inside and wants to be good, but they don't run plays for him. In fact, they don't run plays for anyone.
Basically, until Evan decided to just win the game by physically taking over the game late, it was a lousy offensive performance. But until then, it's obvious that Payne is handcuffed because, yes, he can be a bit out of control. I am disappointed that Payne hasn't played a more controlled game and worked on a pull up jumper. He still relies on athleticism and ISO to get points. It's a catch-22. He needs to play more controlled and improve his game, but he's by the far the best player on the team and the guy to bail us out of Dunlap's offense from 1985.
If Dunlap lets Payne take over the games, then it'll work to a degree in that we'll remain competitive...I think. But if Dunlap goes after Payne, he should just transfer because his game will never mesh with Dunlap's vision of a communist offense. Payne's logic (let me get buckets and take over) rather than wait for it to happen late through a slow developing offense. Payne is that of an Alpha on a team, and dunlap can't handle not having control. It's obvious watching him on the sideline and in his substitution patterns. That's another thing. Yes since you're playing NAIA you want to get everyone action. But it seemed like he was running Kentucky and the two shifts instead of LMU. I wish he'd focus on 8-9 players and get their roles together. Starting Payne and Siame on the bench (your two best players lets be honest) screams of insecurity and oddity in the WCC.
However, while the offense was weird and stagnant, it's the defense that could be the undoing. How many wide-open shots did the other guys get because of slow rotations, confusion and also the idea that everybody was either reaching or taking huge gambles on passes? I really hope that they figure that one out because a DI school would have torched us with open looks. I'm looking at Gonzaga, BYU, St. Mary's and San Diego having a field day with us if that doesn't change.
That brings me to my final point. It doesn't look anything different than LMU teams of the past. I've entered year 10 of being an LMU fan now and its basically the same thing every year. Nothing original or innovative on offense. Lax defense. An upset, grumpy coach. We are hiring coaches to take us up to the upper echelon of the WCC aka the top 4, and nothing seems as great as the recruiting of Gonzaga, the specific skill sets of BYU and St. mary's and the spunk of San Diego or San Fran. The mid majors that crack are teams like Dunk City, or Norfolk State or Lehigh that have some kind of magical energy and exciting happy coaches that you can tell radiates through the players on the floor.
If Dunlap isn't going to do anything original like that, fine that's his style. But lets stop with the silliness and focus on your best players. Siame, how the kid is full of talent. he has a high motor, plays with the same intrigue on both offense and defense. Let Siame be an anchor. Payne is a scorer and a super athlete. Egbeyemi is a glue guy, a leader of the floor, and will defend the other guy's best player. Toss in Mornar who great on defense and developing offense, find a PG and boom you have a chance.
Hre you go Dunlap this is what you do. This is your starting line-up. Don't get cute.
PG Hayes(didn't see Hayes but has to be better than Simon) SG Payne SF Egbeyemi PF Mornar C Siame
Bench: Simon, Herman (use your body dude! get aggressive) Okonji, Humphries
Let them play!
If Dunlap can get out of his own way, maaaybe, just maybe there is enough out of that starting 5 to give us a fighting chance to be .500 in league. I don't know his record with developing big men, but he has to keep Siame hungry because right now he's offensive rebounding, following up shots and running the floor. But even Shaq says that you need to feed the big man. You can tell why he was highly touted. He's just getting into game action. Keep him engaged. Even if he can't score like a traditional big man yet, its still worth it overall. Payne can give you 15-20ppg easy. Let him score.
Basically its this. Take Gonzaga and then BYU and St. Mary's out of the equation.
Of those 7 teams, Evan is as good as any team's best player. Siame can be as good as any team's second best player at a premium position by WCC play if he stays on his trajectory. Egbeyemi, Okonji and Mornar can be as good as team's 3-5 when you take defense, rebounding and occasional scoring into account.
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Post by husky on Nov 24, 2014 10:23:55 GMT -5
No "Lions", we saw the same game all right. I'm just not nearly the analyst you are. I basically noticed that Evan only played roughly half the game, and scored almost at will (career high 28 points). So I would still contend that Dunlap's focus was on something other than humiliating a NAIA school. My earlier posts should prove that I am not a Dunlap minion; for example, I said early on that while Westhead was the "Guru of Go", Dunlap may turn out to be the "Guru of Slow". But I do think he deserves a chance. Additionally, I thought Evan would be the first from the Good administration to bail and we would sure be deep in the crapper without him.
Actually I agree with pretty much everything else and expect Dunlap will settle on something very close to the line you recommend as we get deeper into the season.
Your overall WCC observations are also pretty good, with one exception. I do not share your regard for USD and especially their expensive sub 500 coach.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Nov 24, 2014 11:59:36 GMT -5
Here goes:
Top 3 Gonzaga, BYU, St Mary's in that order
Middle: USF, Pepperdine, USD, Portland roughly in that order
Bottom: Santa Clara, LMU, Pacific
I always thought the Lions would surprise folks this season and outperform the pundits but it seems I'm on top of the surprise list!
I agree with slb's analysis that Dunlap needs to let the young men play rather than trying to control the action
I am hoping things will gel sooner than later and Dunlap will adjust his "system" so that I am surprised in the positive direction later this season
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Post by ironlion on Nov 24, 2014 12:48:20 GMT -5
Communist offense is a perfect description. From the games I have watched dunlap seems very similar to Aggers. If you deviate from the system you get yanked. It will be interesting how Dunlap will do when he doesn't have coach good's players to rely on.
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Post by ADG'99 on Nov 24, 2014 20:45:57 GMT -5
I predict that the Lions will not end the season any lower than they did in 2009, 2013, or 2014.
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