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Post by slblions08 on Dec 6, 2014 19:43:32 GMT -5
Just wanted a place to talk about some of whats happening around the conference this season.
Gonzaga just went to OT in Arizona today and lost at the last seconds 66-69. They actually led a lot of the game and just let it get away. They have an incredible team. THey pretty much match up with Arizona. I could see them matching up in the NCAAs and I can see Gonzaga being up for a #2 seed this year. WIth Kentucky, Duke, Wisconsin looking very tough I doubt the Zags ever get back to #1 this year because of the depth at the top, but they are easily in contention for a #2. That bodes well for the conference because that means our #2 should definitely get in already by way of default unless something goes haywire. I
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Post by longtimelionfan on Dec 7, 2014 12:42:56 GMT -5
I watched SMC v. Boise State last night on ESPNU and the Lions played Boise State better than the Gaels. I also learned that the Gaels haven't played on the road yet. From what I saw last night, the Gaels interior defense is poor; their offense is really limited to Waldow hook shots over his left shoulder and shooting threes; Simmons, the transfer from UW, is flat-footed on defense and likes to push and shoveand isn't very subtle about it. Finally, the Gaels didn't appear very deep. Their 5 starters all played over 30 minutes; 3 of the 5 over 35 minutes. Overall, if last night was representative, I don't think SMC is in the top 4 and if they suffer any injuries to the top 5, the Gaels could be deep into the second division.
On the other end of the spectrum, I may have underestimated Pepperdine. The Waves go 8 deep and are 5-1. Now, the record is built off victories over CSUN, San Jose State, Fullerton and Fresno State but that demonstrates the Waves are a cut above second division mid-major teams. In short, Pepperdine is a candidate to replace a falling SMC in the upper division of the WCC.
The Lions opening conference game against the Waves will be bigger than just two projected second division teams.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Dec 8, 2014 23:39:14 GMT -5
The Waves are led by bulky “forward” Stacy Davis, listed as 6’6”, 235, who plays bigger, and 6’7” 225 forward Jett Raines plus guard Jeremy Major (OK, only 5’10”). I think these guys learned their game on the street so their BB IQs are ahead of some international players who did not have competition while really young. All three of these guys average double figures scoring with two more guys in the 9+ range.
I agree the Waves are really coming along. But just when do the Lions get some kind of break in the schedule? Not even NAU will be an easy game!
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Post by ALioninWinter on Dec 9, 2014 15:12:45 GMT -5
90045 - I'm afraid we are the "break" everyone looks forward to playing. Not trying to be snarky but that's kinda the way things are shaping up.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Dec 9, 2014 20:35:31 GMT -5
Winter - I fear you are correct!
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Post by slblions08 on Dec 15, 2014 4:28:47 GMT -5
A quick look at the WCC standings
TEAM CONF GB OVR Gonzaga 0-0 -- 9-1 Saint Mary's 0-0 6-1 Portland 0-0 7-2 BYU 0-0 8-3 Pepperdine 0-0 5-2 Pacific 0-0 6-4 San Francisco 0-0 5-4 Santa Clara 0-0 5-4 San Diego 0-0 6-5 Loyola Marymount 3-5
Obviously Gonzaga has been the class of the conference, and if not for a tough OT loss at Arizona they might claim "the best in the west". The just demolished UCLA in Pauley last night. Hopefully they can keep it up. I predict something like 17-1 or 16-2 in conference which means they'll flirt with almost 30 wins after the WCC tournament. They might be in line for a 2 or 3 seed in the NCAAs.
BYU is the next best team in conference. They lost a tough OT game to San Diego State in a tourney, and then lost by a few to in-state rival Utah who is ranked #13 and beat Wichita State. They also lost a nailbiter to Purdue which normally would be a bad loss, but they started out alright and it was at a early season tournament. Had BYU won any of those games against the ranked teams, I would think BYU would have been ranked themselves. I'm not sure they ever crack the top 25 this season but they'll be like top 45 I think. They have a shot against Stanford next, right after we play them. I think they're tracking as a tourney team, but they still need a signature win. Last year they beat Stanford on the opening night and it carried them into the tourney at season's end. They might need to repeat their feat to ensure themselves.
St. Mary's is near the top but they don't have an impressive victory on the season. They have an interesting game at St. John's coming up next week that they need to win if they want a shot at the NCAA tourney as the third team.
Portland and San Diego have deceptive records. Portland has beat some bottom tier mid majors, while San Diego has matched up decently against San Diego State and UCLA.
Based on what's been going on in the non-conference part of the schedule, LMU is going to have their hands full to reach 10 wins on the season. With games against Stanford, Wichita State and two other challenges in Hawaii, it might leave the Lions with at best 4 or 5 wins before WCC play. And based on how other teams are shaping up, it might be a tall order to win 5 or 6 games in conference. Unless Herman, Siame or someone else steps up, it could be a llllong season.
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Post by longtimelionfan on Dec 15, 2014 13:16:37 GMT -5
I think SLB makes some very good observations in his above post. I previously said that I think SMC will fall down this year and I'm still of that opinion although the Gael's overtime win at Creighton makes me less confident about that opinion.
Respecting the Lions, I think Saturday's performance against NAU reveals some key indicators for this team going forward. Team shooting percentages, FG, FT and from behind the arc, while important to success, are not the most important factors for this team to win. Minimizing turnovers, balanced scoring and offensive production from the front court are three more important factors. The Lions need more than one offensive threat. Without some inside punch, wins are going to be very difficult. I agree with SLB, Herman, Siame, Mornar or someone must step up offensively. Finally, since Lions' wins are likely to be by single digits ball security is going to be at a premium. The Lions must focus on keeping their turnovers below double digits.
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Post by longtimelionfan on Dec 17, 2014 2:14:35 GMT -5
NAU beat St. Mary's tonight in Moraga. That provides a small bit of deodorant to the Lions loss (by the same margin) in Flagstaff last Saturday. It also further supports my prediction that SMC falls back in the WCC standings this year.
USF lost last night to Cal Poly at home. BYU lost Austin to a torn hamstring and Haws has a badly sprained ankle. Santa Clara has some bad losses.
After Gonzaga there is a lot of mediocrity in the conference this year. And that translates to development opportunity for the Lions.
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Post by ironlion on Dec 18, 2014 22:57:25 GMT -5
Pacific has been put together a nice record so far. They are up by 20 over Nevada right now as well.
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Post by longtimelionfan on Dec 19, 2014 22:12:37 GMT -5
Watched SMC v. SMC. i see a lot of parallels between Gaels and Lions. Offense is really limited to one player: Waldow/Payne. Pinneau and Mornar very similar players; Mornar's advantages: he's left handed and gets higher off first jump. Both lack strength. Neither teams guards protect the ball well enough. Second best offensive threats are 3 point shooting JC transfers: Carter/Hayes. Front court newcomers from whom much was expected have been underwhelming so far: Simmons/Herman. Two foreign freshman guards who are playing like freshman: Naar/Krajovic.
A couple of reasons the Lions have a potentially higher ceiling than Gaels: If Patson continues to improve he can match up with Waldow. SMC has no one to match-up with Evan. If Speirs can play well enough to get time, he adds more offensive potential as a 3 point shooter. Finally, the Lions' bench is deeper..
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Post by longtimelionfan on Dec 19, 2014 22:18:17 GMT -5
I meant SMC v. St. Johns above.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Dec 21, 2014 20:19:54 GMT -5
Not sure this is the correct thread but USC beat favored Boston College today 75-71, improving their record to 7-4.
Mr. Elijah Stewart shot 10 for 10 and led USC with 22 points with forward Jovanoic adding 16 on 8 for 10 shooting. Ironically, Stewart was 0-4 from the free throw line. Look for Stewart to make some noise when Pac-12 play starts.
Separately, #3 ranked mid-major Harvard, behind #1 Gonzaga and #2 Wichita State lost to #6 UVA 76-27. The Cavaliers held Harvard to one basket in the first half of play. Harvard's starting 5 shot a combined 1 for 32 - amazing! Perhaps, UCLA won't feel so bad now??
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Post by longtimelionfan on Dec 27, 2014 22:50:43 GMT -5
In conference openers today: (1) Gonzaga covered as 5 point favorites at BYU; (2) USF covered as a 2.5 point favorites at Pacific; (3) SMC covered as 10.5 point favorites at home against Santa Clara; and (4) Portland with a 9-0 run including a 3 by Alec Wintering with 1 second left beat 6 point favorite USD in San Diego by 3.
In a final non-conference tune-up Pepperdine (as an 11.5 favorite) lost at home to IUPUI by 2.
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Post by ALioninWinter on Dec 28, 2014 2:02:49 GMT -5
No real surprises. I felt Portland should have been favored over San Diego. I see them as the conference's 3rd place team this year.
Can't help but be happy about Pepperdine's loss. I think their fans were getting a bit uppity about their team's chances this year. I admit I haven't seen them play, but I have hard time figuring out how they could be better than last year's team.
I watched the Gonzaga/BYU team. The Lions are going to have their hands full playing either team. The Zags jumped out to a big early lead but the Cougars fought back and it was a close game all the way until the end. The Zags should have worked the ball more into their big guys because BYU has very little inside strength. Pangos is a great scoring guard, and he killed the Cougars in the second half with his outside shooting and aggressive drives. However, he's really not a great passing PG. They won't have any trouble beating the Lions, but if they want to advance in the tournament, they need to get their pieces working together a bit better. Wiltjer is a bit slow afoot but he has all kinds of talent. Good moves inside, a 6'10" guy who can shoot threes, follows his shot every time. I don't know how we guard him. Wesley is a bit of a free spirit. I'm surprised Coach Few has given him so much leash. But he is their second leading scorer. I still don't think much of Karnowski but whatever he lacks is more than made up for by Wiltjer, Sabonis and a few others.
What made the Gonzaga/BYU game close was BYU's defense and their FT shooting. By far the best defense I've seen them play since joining the league. They also are shooting very well from the free throw line. Both these areas have been real weaknesses for the Cougars in the past. They don't have much of an inside threat but make up for it by playing at warp speed. They have a whole bunch of guys who can run, shoot and score. Dunlap is going to need to issue motorcycles to our guys for them to keep up.
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Post by thx4leavinjimlynam on Jan 2, 2015 0:19:54 GMT -5
Meanwhile, in Santa Clara...
Today, the Broncos, at home, trailed BYU 36-8 with less than eight minutes left in the first half. Final score: BYU 81, Santa Clara 46.
Keating can't be sleeping well tonight.
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