WCC Mid-Season Assessment

[longtimelionfan]

We're now midway through the WCC regular season and I thought I'd start a thread looking at in-conference assessment. My thoughts started with the realization that the Lions have won 2 of their last 4 and with better play in the last minute at SCU it could have been 3 of 4. But, it wasn't. Both wins came as big underdogs (9 & 10 points); in, fact, LMU is 4-0 ATS in its last 4 games.

When I looked at the in-conference stats, I was surprised to see that LMU's offense is not the worst in conference by quite a margin. LMU is 6th in scoring (63.4 ppg); 6th in field goal percentage (.438); and, 3d in 3pt field goal average (.396). Now, the Lions have shot the fewest number of threes by a wide margin (only 106) but what surprised me more was that LMU had hit as many 3's (42) as Johnny Dee's USD.

Looking at defensive in-conference stats were in one sense what I expected: the Lions are last in 3 point field goal percentage defense, allowing WCC opponents to shoot .403 percent and 9th overall in field goal percentage defense at .468. Interestingly, USF is last at.480. That helped the Lions overcome that 17 point second half defecit last night. But, surprising in another, LMU is tied for second with the Zags in average defensive rebounds per game: 30.9; LMU is 4th in rebounding margin at +1.8.

Bottom line for me, LMU statistically is far from the worst team in the conference. The Lions are more in the 6-7 range and, if the trend of the last two weeks holds, I suspect that is where they'll finish the WCC regular season in 6th or 7th place.

[LIONS90045]

Barring the unexpected, Gonzaga (9-0) will finish undefeated in first and Saint Mary’s (8-1) second. While they lack toughness inside, the Cougars (5-4) should hang on for third place, although their loss to USD is worrisome. They don't look like an NCAA team to me this season.

I had conceded fourth to the Waves (5-4) but now I have my doubts. They have lost recent games they were expected to win. Santa Clara (5-4) could also sneak in there.

Places 6 through 10 are up for grabs, like longtime says, even by the Lions.

Portland, USD and USF are 3-6 and Pacific and the Lions are 2-7. Among these, the Lions have shown the most improvement in team play in my opinion. USD’s upset of BYU was a good game for them but they can be beaten, as can Portland, USF and Pacific. Siame’s return will further bolster our interior defense and add a few more points inside.

It will be interesting to see how the Lions mature as the season progresses in their second match up with WCC foes. The Lions are intelligent and have been observing how their opponents play as has Dunlap – I’m expecting them to fare better in the return bouts. Exceptions are the Zags and the Gaels, who are a class above the field, but otherwise it’s an open scramble

[ALioninWinter]

Great analysis Longtime. You uncovered some interesting stats. Our ineffective defensive stats could be improved if CMD would either modify or drop that zone defense scheme. It's as ineffective as any zone defense I've seen.

Other than the Gonzaga game we actually have the ability to win all of our remaining games. I'm not saying we will. Only that we could. There's not that much difference between the "9 dwarves."

Randy Bennett will probably keep his guys well enough tuned to keep the Gaels firmly in control of second place.

BYU will hold third place but could easily lose to more than Gonzaga in the second half. You're right. They are not tournament worthy. Their lack of a front line is killing them. They also are sorely in need of a PG. Collinsworth is a great and versatile player who is filling in admirably at the position but he's not a PG.

Everyone else looks about the same. Lots of holes mixed in with a handful of notable players. I don't see much difference between any of them. Who is going to step up?

[slblions08]

I figure the Lions have about 5 winnable games left. I'd say probably not likely to beat Gonzaga, BYU, St. Mary's or Pepperdine away. However, they have Portland, San Francisco and Santa Clara (who they played close) at home and San Diego on the road. Pacific, I'm not sure about, but I'd say they could win there.

If LMU were to win 3 of those and finish 5-13, it would actually be a improvement over last year's 4-14 conference record, so that would be nice to see. This year, the bottom half of the conference is so much weaker than the top 2 that it's skewing the loss totals a bit. Wouldn't surprise me to see Gonzaga go undefeated and St. Mary's with only 2 or 3 losses.

[longtimelionfan]

Winter, I suspect CMD will still use the zone a fair amount because he feels a steady diet of M2M will be even worse. We've all noted the Lions are speed and quickness challenged and that gets exposed with solid doses of M2M. Interestingly, this past week the Lions employed what appeared to by hybrid defenses - a zone that sometimes dissolved into a M2M in the same defensive possession. Also, I think most teams slow down, are hesitant and lack the confidence to consistently attack the zone. Thus, I expect CMD to stay with a lot of zone looks but to switch up his zones and to use hybrid zones going forward. The Lions single greatest weakness is effectively closing out on three point shooters. But, again, I expect CMD with use hybrid zones on certain possessions and with certain defenders to play man on the designated shooters while otherwise staying predominantly zone.

Having said all of this, I think SMC on Thursday presents the greatest challenge particularly without Patson. Based upon Barry Tompkins comments during last Thursday's game, I'm guessing that Patson is at least another week away and won't play against SMC. Against the Gaels, I expect the Lions to again pack it in against Waldow as they did at home and hope that SMC doesn't shoot the lights out from 3.

[ALioninWinter]

Longtime - I agree that our guys probably can't stay with M2M full time and be successful. I just have not been impressed with the zone he was using almost exclusively. It's been way too easy for opponents to find gaping holes and our guys have been way slow on their close-outs. I do hope CMD continues what he seems to have started with a mix of defenses. Keeping the opposing coach guessing is the best thing he can do.

I also agree that against the Gaels it's probably best to pack it in against Waldow and hope they can't hit their 3s. Let's hope for the best!!

[aussielion]

Having only been involved in college basketball for a short time and living in Australia it seems to me as a whole the individual is always celebrated over the team.Is that just me that thinks that

[ALioninWinter]

Aussie - I don't know about "always", but there is a strong tendency in that direction. It's my impression that it goes to the emphasis on celebrity status in the NBA. It's not the Cleveland Cavaliers. It's Lebron and the rest of the team. It's Kobe and those other guys in the purple and gold. The college guys don't have the same celebrity status but I see the same kind of reliance on team's top tier players.

Personally, I blame coaches. LMU's situation the last few years with Anthony Ireland is a perfect example. AI was a great player but there were far too many times when Coach Good abdicated his responsibility and simply told AI to make something happen rather than come up with something that took advantage of the team's collective capabilities. And Coach Good is certainly not the only coach taking that approach.

I'm not agreeing with a number of things in seeing with CMD, but I do believe he is working very hard at building a team approach for the Lions.

[slblions08]

In the NBA, you can argue that every nba title that has been won has included a Hall of Famer, or at least Hall of Fame level talent somewhere on the roster. Most often it takes an amazing coach to organize Hall of Fame talent. This idea has spread and manifested into college and preps. In college, you can see good teams make deep runs, but then again, a lot of those teams have NBA guys anyway. Very rarely are state championships at the high prep level won with unheralded guys or without a great coach like in Hoosiers. So most of these guys that LMU gets were probably 3rd bananas on the team (Dunlap's words) so until he recruits better guys he's going to go with the team approach. I mean, it's his only option. Of course, you have a guy like Evan on the team, but I don't think he's good enough to carry the whole team on his back for 30 games, so you have to go team approach.


The biggest problem though is that most guys think they can play professionally, so they are not interested in sacrificing their games for the team if it means fewer points, etc. It's not always wrong though. Evan Payne has to do a cost-benefit analysis. He has room to be a much greater team player, that's for sure. He could be a better playmaker and team defender, that's for sure. But is it worth it to him if he scores like 5 - 7 less points per game so that LMU wins maybe 1 or 2 extra games down the season and still finish at the bottom, or go all out, score near 20ppg do some highlight stuff and get noticed by pro scouts? With a guy with that high of a ceiling, it's financially not worth it.

So that's what you get in America, but really, that's any industry.

[pumpfake]

My view is that Evan giving up points and one on one play in favor of more assists and more focus on defense only increases his stock with scouts. At his size especially, he needs a more well rounded game. I think the present experiment works to his advantage and the team's advantage. With AI it was different as he already possessed a more well rounded game so for him to get more isolation plays may have worked in his favor. My 2 cents.

[LIONS90045]

Aussie - keen observation, it happens a lot especially with mediocre teams that have one exceptional player. However, I think coaches and fans appreciate the talented player who can lift the play of others on the team. At least, I appreciate them more than the hot dog ego-centric player.
To my eye, it looks like Evan has bought into the team-first approach of Dunlap and we are better for his new attitude. I'm not sure he did not have it before but perhaps other coaches in his career (not just Max) liked his take charge approach; perhaps, he could excel in high school and carry his teams to wins on his shoulders. I like his more patient game lately.
I especially appreciate David's contributions to our recent successes. There is a reason he is starting on a Mike Dunlap team.

[aussielion]

Thanks for all the answers to my question,i know it was like that in Juco but i expected that with just about every player trying to get to Div 1,its just i thought it would be more a team game in Div 1,dont get me wrong im not whinging just an observation.Its a big jump from Junior to Div 1 basketball,i would be interested to get an idea on how many players make it from Juco

[LIONS90045]

A brief update with some encouraging stats.

Standings:

Gonzaga 10-0 22-1
Saint Mary's (CA) 9-2 17-5
BYU 7-4 17-7
Pepperdine 7-4 14-8
San Diego 5-6 12-11
Santa Clara 5-6 11-12
Portland 3-7 12-10
San Francisco 3-8 9-14
Loyola Marymount 3-8 7-16
Pacific 2-9 10-13


Bright notes (stats for all games, not just WCC):

Evan Payne is 3rd in scoring at 17.8 ppg. Haws #1 22.6; Waldow #2 20.1.
Chase Flint is second in Assists/Turnovers at 3.0 behind Pangos 3.8
Godwin Okonji leads the conference in Offensive Rebounds with 3.2 per game (Waldo is second)
Marin Mornar is second in Blocked Shots per Game with 1.6 (Kok leads 2.8)

In WCC only games:

Deji Egbeyemi leads in 3-point % with 55.6% (Johnny Dee is not in top 15)

In most of the WCC team stats, LMU ranks in the middle of the pack, encouraging given our slow start to the year.

Go Lions!

[ALioninWinter]

LMU is actually in the 8-spot due to our win over USF. We are only 1/2 game behind Portland ( who we also beat).

Two games behind the next group ... who are also "catchable". Things are looking up.

[golions1444]

A quick note on our improved play:

First 7 WCC games: Averaging 12.7 Assists and 13.5 TO's

Last 4 WCC games: Averaging 17.8 Assists and 8.5 TO's

Love to see the lions playing quality basketball, let's hope the trend continues