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Post by thx4leavinjimlynam on Feb 23, 2015 0:53:28 GMT -5
Thanks to ADG for the "goal" mention in the thread titled "Dunlap is Experienced, Focused and has a Plan". Let's take a look at how the WCC Tournament is shaking out for the Lions.
Pacific is 3-13, we are 4-13.
If we win, LMU would have a victory against the 4th or 5th place team (Pepp), so we would finish ninth, no matter what Pacific does.
If we lose, and Pacific gets swept by SCU and USF (both games on the road, away from Stockton), then LMU finishes in ninth.
If we lose, and Pacific beats USF and loses to SCU, we both would have 4-14 records. Both LMU and Pacific would have split against each other, and also beaten the same three other teams (Port, USD, USF) so that takes it to the final tiebreaker...RPI. At the moment we are 237, but Pacific is 229. Even though we are playing a higher-RPI team (Pepp), if Pacific beats USF, I would imagine they would stay ahead of us. Thus if Pacific beats USF, and we lose to Pepp, I think Pacific finishes ninth and LMU tenth.
If we lose, and Pacific beats SCU and loses to USF, we both would have 4-14 records. Assuming St. Mary's sweeps SCU and USF, then USF would finish ahead of SCU in the standings. Thus we would have a win against a better-rated opponent (USF would finish in seventh, SCU in eighth) and we would finish in ninth, Pacific in tenth.
The advantage of finishing ninth is:
a) we improved from last year (per Dunlap's quote)
b) disadvantage is that we would be in the 8-9 game where, if we win, we play Gonzaga
The advantage of finishing tenth is:
a) we would play in the 7-10 game where, if we win, we play St. Mary's (BYU has a long-shot chance at second, but pretty much would have to win at Gonzaga)
For the record, best we could do is ninth.
Seeds 5-8 are completely up in the air:
Port and USD are 7-9
USF and SCU are 6-10
Of those four, USF scares me the most.
Go Lions!
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Post by slblions08 on Feb 23, 2015 1:39:36 GMT -5
One thing that Good was able to do was win games at the WCC tournament. Dunlap has to win an opening round game in my eyes.
If LMU finished 9th by with a 4-14 record, is that really an accomplishment? Considering that it would be the exact same record as last season in by all accounts, a weaker conference than last year. Also consider that the only reason we are not last is because Pacific has gotten worse. If that's improvement, that's ridiculous. That's just a team being better than you were last year at being bad. I just hope Dunlap comes out and says mea culpa like Phil Jackson did with the Knicks. I would give him respect if he did that. If not then he's even more full of it then I thought.
If anything thus far, it's been status quo. Now if that endears everybody then that's another story. I guess you could argue that we could have gotten worse.
Good Grief... We are now a long ways away from that wonderful and inspiring Grantland article.
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Post by longtimelionfan on Feb 24, 2015 12:40:51 GMT -5
I think SLB's analysis overlooks something that is fairly obvious. Two short weeks ago in another thread on this site people were expressing an opinion on whether the Lions would win 7 or more games. Since that time we've all learned of significant injuries and an ejection/suspension. Deji has been unavailable or significantly diminished. Forget the Gonzaga game, Deji played limited minutes against Portland was clearly not a 100% and left early with ice on his quad. We've also learned that Evan's been fighting a knee issue that ultimately caused him to miss both the USF and Santa Clara games. Patson got ejected for a half-ending scuffle against USF and, as a result, was ineligible for SCU, where LMU lost the rebounding battle. In addition, reserves Spiers and Norris got hurt against USF, necessitating a next man up walk-on reserve to play his first minutes of the year. I say this only to note that I think, and others on this board did to based upon the over/under 7 wins thread two weeks ago, if healthy the Lions would likely be in 7th or 8th place. Yes, I agree with SLB that I think the league is weaker overall this year but so is this Lions team compared to last year. Thus, I disagree with SLB's conclusion. I also think that if Deji, Evan and Patson are healthy and available the Lions are a good bet to win their first round tournament game. That said, I'll be disappointed if next year's Lions team doesn't show incremental improvement by being clearly closer to the middle of the pack.
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Post by golions1444 on Feb 24, 2015 16:19:27 GMT -5
In all fairness though, Good's teams were decimated by injuries many times, so if he couldn't use it as an excuse to keep his job, then Dunlap can't either...for the sake of the argument of comparing the two coaches
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Lion-O
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Post by Lion-O on Feb 24, 2015 16:45:16 GMT -5
curious, do you think Good's coaching style resulted in more injuries than expected? Really seemed like horrible luck so wasn't sure if coaching style may result in more injuries than others.
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Post by husky on Feb 24, 2015 17:18:02 GMT -5
Lets see. Yeah, if Good had not called a Sunday morning practice then Godwin and Deji couldn't have been T-boned by that little old lady on her way to church. Same token, if he had not had Chase Flint in the game when he did, then Chase couldn't have been on the court when he broke his arm in front of all of us. No, I think it's mainly just that s*** happens.
BTW baring what will have to be considered an upset in Malibu Saturday, we will finish with 4 conference wins which is exactly the same as last year. Additionally, unless we run the table at the tournament we will fall considerably short of the 13 total wins we had last year. So we still have a way to go. Now, recall in Goods second year we had an, albeit barely, winning season. It would be nice to do at least as well next year.
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Post by slblions08 on Feb 24, 2015 22:41:44 GMT -5
In all fairness though, Good's teams were decimated by injuries many times, so if he couldn't use it as an excuse to keep his job, then Dunlap can't either...for the sake of the argument of comparing the two coaches Actually go back further. I remember watching the Great Alaskan Shootout on ESPN and the announcers (same guys calling Our Hawaii games) were raving about our team being a lock to make the NCAAs because of Worthy and Knight. Then one gets a torn ACL and the other a concussion. The same people that lived Tention love Dunlap. Think about that. They also loved talking about Good and his experience about bettering men. |
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Post by LIONS90045 on Mar 1, 2015 15:08:23 GMT -5
For what its worth, the Lions actually have a favorable draw in the conference tournament: Round #1 - #10 LMU vs #7 Santa Clara (Pacific plays USF) (Friday, 8 pm) Round #2 – if we win, #10 LMU vs #2 BYU (Saturday, 8 pm) While not likely, we could win a few games but BYU is hot right now and may get their NCAA at large bid. www.wccsports.com/ot/15-wcc-tournament-central.html |
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Post by slblions08 on Mar 1, 2015 17:58:36 GMT -5
For what its worth, the Lions actually have a favorable draw in the conference tournament: Round #1 - #10 LMU vs #7 Santa Clara (Pacific plays USF) (Friday, 8 pm) Round #2 – if we win, #10 LMU vs #2 BYU (Saturday, 8 pm) While not likely, we could win a few games but BYU is hot right now and may get their NCAA at large bid. www.wccsports.com/ot/15-wcc-tournament-central.html I'm not sure how that's favorable. We've not shown an ability to compete with BYU in both match ups.... Dunlap will have to pull out a miracle to beat Santa Clara which just knocked off St. Mary's. I'm more interested in if Dunlap will speak to his failure to meet his goals. Is there a WCC tourney media day? |
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Post by LIONS90045 on Mar 1, 2015 18:39:31 GMT -5
We lost our recent game to USF by 27 at home while we only lost by 7 to Santa Clara.
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Post by ALioninWinter on Mar 1, 2015 22:01:17 GMT -5
We lost to BYU by a lot both times. We lost to Santa Clara by less than 10 both times, but still lost. We're on a multi-game losing streak at seasons end. It's looking like we won't have Evan. Hard to find much to get excited about.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Mar 1, 2015 22:16:03 GMT -5
Agreed Winter
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Post by LIONS90045 on Mar 7, 2015 21:46:28 GMT -5
We are done and now so is St Mary's, beat by Portland. Pepperdine advances over USD.
Gonzaga is in a dog fight vs USF right now.
Later, can Santa Clara continue to shoot lights out vs BYU?
The Gaels might get into NIT best case.
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Post by slblions08 on Mar 7, 2015 23:18:36 GMT -5
I bet not a lot of people saw St. Mary's getting drilled by Portland. however the Pilots have been trending up lately and with a couple good players like Bailey, Van Der Mars and Wintering, they have a shot. For Santa Clara, they have two dynamite scorers and if the rest of the guys get hot, anything can happen.
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Post by ALioninWinter on Mar 7, 2015 23:35:42 GMT -5
Portland has had. Disappointing year, but injuries played a big role in that. I predicted in pre-season that they would challenge for 3rd place. I thought they even had a shot at second. Then, the injuries hit. I think they're pretty healthy now with the exception (and its a big one) of their center. It doesn't surprise me that they beat the Gaels.
Pepperdine over San Diego is no surprise. The Toreros have two guards and that's about it.
Gonzaga really hasn't been playing that well. It hurts to say it but I don't think the WCC has helped them this year. They have coasted thru too many games.
Santa Clara will be hard pressed to repeat their shooting performance BYU will play defense. The Broncos didn't see much of that last night.
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