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WCC Watch
Feb 10, 2016 17:44:47 GMT -5
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Post by ALioninWinter on Feb 10, 2016 17:44:47 GMT -5
Top Tier - Gonzaga, St Marys, BYU
At least, that is what the national media would consider to be the WCC's top tier. All three are down from last year. Especially disappointing for Gonzaga since they thought they had a Final Four team this year. St Marys is doing much better than expected and they seem to have some brightness in their future, but they aren't as good as last year. BYU has the talent but their performance has been sub-par. I think all three teams have a bright future but all three are below their teams from last year.
It's the rest of the league where the problems lie. The WCC doesn't really have much of a middle tier (which I'll define as teams that are knocking on the door and maybe have a chance to advance -- if not this year, then next).
The Waves may be the only real mid-tier team we have. I don't know if Pepperdine is any better than last year. It's basically the same team, maybe better because they're all a year older. They're good enough that they could pull an upset or two in the tournament this year. But their OCC performance wasn't impressive. Coach Wilson seems to be doing a good job but I'm not sure where the Waves go after this year. They lose their engine (Davis) and Raines. They have one solid frosh this year. I don't know what they have coming in next year. I see them in danger of slipping.
Who else is doing well? Pacific deserves a ton of credit for playing tough and winning some games, but they aren't much of a threat to crack the top tier this year or in the near future, especially with their sanctions issues.
Every team in the league has shown some potential to pull the occasional upset against the top tier (well, maybe except for our Lions) but no one is even close to even be considered a real threat to turn the Top Three into a Top Four.
USF has the next best record -- right about where they usually are. But they aren't very good. I have a hard time even thinking of them as a mid-tier type team (using my definition).
The rest of the league is downright bad. Our second division wouldn't be competitive in the Big West this year -- and that's a problem. Even more so because I'm not sure I see a path forward for any of the five (I'm including Pacific) that might elevate them to that "mid tier" level. The new USD coach deserves some time to prove what he can do but everyone else has had some time to show what they can/can't do.
The way I see it is the WCC is a league this year with 3 good (but having down years) programs, 1 decent program and 6 crummy programs. What's worse is that I foresee a future with 3 solid programs, maybe 1 program that might be getting close and a bunch of irrelevant programs. That's not a good future.
... and I won't even get into the LMU situation.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Feb 10, 2016 20:23:24 GMT -5
I think SLB has it right - top teams are down, specifically the Zags and Cougars - but the rest of the pack seems competitive with each other. Like any of the bottom 7 can beat any other on a given night. Yes several are more competitive (Waves, Dons, Pilots, maybe Tigers) and some less. As to the Lions, the trend is what bothers me right now - we are regressing as a team. The guys are all playing hard but the whole deal isn't working. Low shooting % doesn't help at all. Poor defense. Etc. For the players sake, especially Seniors Humphries and Mornar who have endured this season, I'm hoping for a few nice wins to close out their careers.
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Post by ALioninWinter on Feb 12, 2016 0:10:06 GMT -5
San Diego lost tonight. We're out of the cellar!
BYU/USF broke 200 points tonight. BYU won
Pepperdine and St Marys are tied at halftime.
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Post by lmu2015 on Feb 12, 2016 10:11:11 GMT -5
And Nick Emery is only a Freshman... And of course Pepperdine beats Saint Mary's. If we win tomorrow that would most likely take away any chances of an automatic bid for them. And once again, we are playing a team coming off a bad shooting performance (Saint Mary's was 4-19 from three), look for them to turn that around bring their average back up tomorrow.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Feb 12, 2016 14:50:42 GMT -5
The Gaels were also 5 - 14 from the Free Throw line and that hurt Expect better there also
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WCC Watch
Feb 15, 2016 16:42:02 GMT -5
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Post by slblions08 on Feb 15, 2016 16:42:02 GMT -5
According to Lunardi's latest bracketology the Gaels are a total bubble team. Pepperdine has thrown everything for a loop. Their season reminds me of our 2011.
I can't help but think we could have made a run with Cartwight Payne Stewart Levin and Siame. Oh well. As soon as Dunlap finishes his two years that don't count we will have a shot at the tourney in year five of Dunlap's plan.
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WCC Watch
Feb 15, 2016 18:04:27 GMT -5
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Post by lmulionsroar on Feb 15, 2016 18:04:27 GMT -5
There is a good chance Nick Faust and Noah Blackwell from long beach state would also be on our roster if a change was not made. Faust is a 1000 point acc scorer who dad is close friends with Scholl. Scholl was also instrumental in recruiting Blackwell to long beach.
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WCC Watch
Feb 15, 2016 18:44:11 GMT -5
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Post by slblions08 on Feb 15, 2016 18:44:11 GMT -5
I'm actually totally willing to give him a pass on year 1. He did try to make it work with Payne. Where I'm critical is on his own self described standards or changes that he saw were in need of an upgrade. I haven't seen those areas improved at all in year 2. The team has seemed to take a step back since the season started. Thad not a good sign. Overall the program is in the same as it was two full years ago when Dunlap became in charge . I'm waiting to see year 3 because that's quite enough time to build a team. A lot is riding on Trevor Manuel much like Good when he got to finally play Drew Viney
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Post by LIONS90045 on Feb 15, 2016 18:45:30 GMT -5
Such is the fate of LMU basketball. Unfortunately, I too agree that when Max finally had his best team, his reign was terminated.
Do you think Dunlap will produce a 20-win team during his first five years of coaching LMU? I hope so.
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WCC Watch
Feb 15, 2016 19:48:51 GMT -5
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Post by ALioninWinter on Feb 15, 2016 19:48:51 GMT -5
I think the program has actually regressed from 2 years ago when CMD came aboard.
At that time we had 2 players who were playing their All-WCC Newcomer freshmen years and 2 recruits with very solid credentials. That was a lot of youthful promise.
Where are we now? Jacko has proven his worth, but we only have him for another year so he doesn't represent "an exciting future." The same can be said of the other JC transfers -- even if you give them the benefit of the doubt talent-wise, they're only around for another year. Our freshman class (Tutu and NcClendon) have shown some level of promise but neither has played to the levels of Payne and Lavin in their first years. We're pinning a lot of hopes on Manuel beginning next year. Maybe he will be great but he didn't exactly shake up the world at Oregon. He didn't give himself much of a shot, but he's certainly not a sure bet to turn our program around. As for Sykes and Gipson, maybe they'll be great but their senior hi school seasons haven't been particularly noteworthy.
CMD spent Year 1 tearing down everything he could find that was attached to the past. There was no growth, no building. I'm not sure what he's accomplished this year. I haven't seen strong player development outside of Jacko. He's recruited shooters but then hasn't built offensive sets to take advantage of their skill set. His over reliance on JC transfers makes it very difficult to build continuity.
I know, patience. I agree he deserves time but I'm still looking in vain for those indicators of future promise. We're basically through Year 2. Once those indicators start to appear, it's still going to take time.
And would someone please tell him that it's really important in the WCC to guard the 3-point line ?!
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Post by pumpfake on Feb 16, 2016 0:01:24 GMT -5
I too have lamented what could have been with Cartwight, Payne, Stewart, Levin, and Siame. You might recall I was a critic of the firing of Max at the time. I am trying to see the glass half full with the present staff. I am not around the team and don't have any inside info but will say that I think that Dunlap can be successful. It's only an impression but it seems his players have bought into what he is doing as opposed to revolting which I feared. We never see players acting up when pulled from games and I think there is more learning (and development) going on than we think. Turnovers are way down, ball movement is crisp, and players move without the ball. As far as JC transfers go, I don't think it's the long term plan to rely on transfers but we had MAJOR holes to fill and given our recent history recruits aren't exactly banging down the doors to come play for us. We are really fortunate to get Jacko who looks like he could be on lots of other rosters. That's a win. We needed a point guard badly and we picked up a very quick penatrator and scorer in Brown. He's undersized and has had a tough time lately but he still is a solid recruit who filled a critical need. Shamar is also undersized but he gives us good minutes. Finally, Tuach can stick and 3 and has some length on D. He actually semms like a Max Good type recruit. I think all 4 of these guys will contribute meaningfully next year. Only Jacko is a prime time player but the other guys will help us win some (MORE!) games. Tutu and McClendon are freshmen and I see lots of upside for both. I'd like to see both develop more offense and some semblance of a shot but I really like the physicality that they bring to our backcourt. Remeber they are two of our most physical players (Shamar being the other) and they are freshmen. Haney and Spiers can shoot the ball and they will be better next year. Herman has a place on this team and will improve. He's got a ways to go but he is definitely better than last year. Next year's recruits are critical. We need at least 2 of the 3 to be real D-1 players who get our opponents' attention. If that happens, we are building something real. Yes, this is a glass half-full post. Maybe it's wishful thinking. We'll see. For now, let's win sweep the bay area teams again and head to Pepp with some momentum.
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Post by lmu2015 on Feb 16, 2016 10:22:55 GMT -5
Definitely a glass half full perspective by pumpfake, but I mostly agree with it. We are getting closer to a roster that actually has 12 D1 players on scholarship, last year when scouts came to practice they were saying that we only had three. I think the key to us next year will be the development of Herman and Tutu. I don't think McClendon will ever be a guy who plays 30+ minutes and gets us double digit scoring, but I am 100% okay with that. He is a strong, tough player who is amazing at rebounding, and very good on ball defender, and brings energy. Tutu is a great FT shooter so you know he was a mid-range game and the potential to be a good shooter is there, and apparently was a pretty good shooter in high school. The last few games he as averaged about 5 points and 5 assists per game despite low shooting percentages. Herman has always flashed potential, just looks lost too often, but he has gotten better from last year. If Herman can make a jump from Soph to Junior year like Mornar did, and Tutu can develp into a double digit scorer, we will be looking good next year. Tuach was one of our best players over the summer, but you can tell that in games his mind is going 100 mph, and he is not a great finisher at the rim, so improvement from him is potentially there. Haney needs to work on his offensive game inside the three point line, he is big enough and athletic enough to be a decent finisher around the rim, and being a threat off the dribble will dramatically help his shooting percentages.
Going into this year my expectations were to finish with an overall record slightly above .500 with about a .500 record in league, so obviously this year has been a disappointment. My expectations at the beginning of the year for the 16-17 season was to get that 4th place spot. If they can win 2 of the final 3 games + win a game in the WCC tourney, it will be enough to keep me optimistic going into next year that they can still get that 4th spot.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 16, 2016 17:13:21 GMT -5
Like him or dislike him CMD is locked into long contract thanks to our ace AD.
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Post by husky on Feb 16, 2016 18:39:40 GMT -5
I never could see what was so great and wonderful about his resume; but, you are undoubtedly right about his longer term contract. In fact, look out for an extension; it's what happened at San Diego with Grier. Unfortunately, this year as a not so new norm. I too hopefully look forward to player improvement next year and beyond. But the problem is most of the other teams will improve as well.
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WCC Watch
Feb 21, 2016 0:16:00 GMT -5
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2016 0:16:00 GMT -5
Smc just beat zags in Spokane and complete the season sweep. Zags need to win the wcc tourney in Vegas or they are on the bubble. Wcc tournament is going to be insane this year.
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