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Post by rswan on Feb 21, 2016 10:59:41 GMT -5
How about a change of pace, a positive and realistic window of where we are.
Anyone who does not see the marked difference in this year's team vs. last, is either flat out trolling, or does not know basketball. Not only has this team pretty significantly increased it's W-L record from a year ago, the team chemistry is good as anything I have seen this season in college basketball. To see Adom Jacko on the bench jumping up and down and waving a towel speaks volumes to the culture, leadership and brotherhood Dunlap has created. I know there are numerous critics of his abrasive and often inflexible personality, but he has assembled a group of players that clearly not only likes each other, but are selfless and are genuinely happy for other's success. This is very rare in today's game, with today's kids. Like him, or hate him, you have to credit Dunlap for putting this team together.
If you look at the schedule, it appears a realistic win total this year will be around 14 and considering the robbery at Boise State and a couple of other tough losses, this team VERY EASILY could have ended this season with 16 wins...double last year's total. Not to mention, this team is 2-2 in Conference without Jacko and Brown and the last two games, Brown and Haney are playing as well as anyone in the conference. Therefore, I will offer the following and expose myself to any chosen fodder, but I am going on record as follows....
Given the fact essentially the entire starting 5 is returning, including the Big 3 of Jacko, Haney and Brown, with the mid-season eligibility of a 4 Star transfer in Trevor Manuel, this team next year could make a legitimate run next year at a 20 win season. The following line-up and depth could actually challenge for at WCC title;
PG - Brown/Tutu SG - Haney/Spiers SF - Manuel/McClendon/Gipson PF - Johnson/ C - Jacko/Herman
This would be one of the biggest, most explosive lineups in the Conference, with huge wings in Haney, Spiers, McClendon and Manuel. I have seen Manuel play and there is no question he has the ball skill and length to be a three.
There is ALOT to be excited about moving in to the soon to be off-season and does anyone recall a time in the past decade you could make a straight faced argument at a potential 20 win season? Teams that have this kind of chemistry that return almost the entire playing rotation can really be dangerous and fun to watch.
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Post by pumpfake on Feb 21, 2016 11:59:15 GMT -5
Thanks for the post rswan. I agree that this team is a big step forward over last year --good chemistry, great ball movement and nice depth. And I agree further that we easily could have won 16 games this year. And finally, though we will definitely miss Mornar, next year's team should be better. As for a twenty win season, while possible, it might come down to what type of non-conference schedule we play. This year's non-conference schedule was weak, though probably appropriate for our young and developing team. I hope next year's non-conference schedule is decidedly more challenging as that will help this team improve even more. As for the WCC, I would love for us to move up to 4th or 5th. Another big question will be injuries. This year, aside from Jacko's recent back issues, we have been mostly injury free. Regardless, I am looking forward to next year as we do have a nice group of guys who are easy to root for. Oh yeah, one more recruit wouldn't hurt either!
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Post by lmu2015 on Feb 21, 2016 13:46:59 GMT -5
The culture has definitely changed, unfortunately it hasn't really translated to much more success on the court but we are headed in the right direction. There are no selfish players on the team, and it would be very easy for Jacko to feel bitter sweet on the teams success without him, but instead he has become our best cheerleader. I still wouldn't say we have a big three, I'd say we still only have one with Jacko. In the beginning of the season, and in these last couple games, Brown looks like he can be an all conference performer but he needs to be be more consistent like Jacko did. As I've said, Haney won't be consistent until he can more consistently get to the hoop and not strictly be s jump shooter. But the fact that all three of them come back next year, the potential for a big three is there.
I only think 20 wins could happen with a very weak non conference schedule as well. I think going .500 in league next year would be solid, and that being said to get 20 wins we would have to only lose 1-2 games out of league. To be honest I never considered Manuel a SF, hut seeing how Dunlap has put Mornar at the three this year a few times it wouldn't surprise me at all.
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Post by golions1444 on Feb 21, 2016 15:39:34 GMT -5
I appreciate a good glass half full post as much as anyone who wants their team to succeed. Let's not forget we had 18 and 20 win seasons under max good so it's not like a 20 win season under Dunlap would be something extraordinary for the program. I was really confident we would be middle of the pack in WCC this year and again we are at the bottom. I think the WCC as a whole continues to get better, especially the top 3 teams so we have a long way to go get to our ultimate goal of competing for the top of the league. We need to continue to recruit good players at the end of the day that's what matters most. If next years class turns out to be. Underwhelming we are in for more years of mediocore basketball at best
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Post by rswan on Feb 21, 2016 17:54:46 GMT -5
All valid points and well-stated. However, this year's team had five starters who prior to this year never played a single game of basketball together. Do you understand how absolutely difficult it is to compete at this level of basketball with those circumstances against teams that have kids that have played together in some instances for four years? This was in retrospect, by anyone's estimation, a pretty remarkable year.
The Max Good era had only one 20 win season. Does that matter to anyone? You can see this team has high character kids, who are examples on and off the floor, kids that are great teammates, kids that are taking care of business in the classroom (Haney Jr - 1st Team All Conference Academic) and ooze likeability and brotherhood on the court. I wonder if people post on here are seeing what I am seeing on that bench. Kids that are not playing minutes that are jumping up and down and genuinely supporting their teammates. Again, what is really important to the LMU fan base, the point spread?
Its been 25 years (other than one Max Good season) where an LMU team has had a 20 win season, so I disagree such an accomplishment would be pedestrian, or not extraordinary. It would be exactly that...extraordinary. And, this team has the returning pieces, chemistry, coaches and toughness to do it. I have been watching LMU basketball for a long time and I have not seen teams in a while play this hard and gritty. That game against USF was a gut check, tough win. Our guys could have folded when it went in to OT and they didn't. They came out and outscored USF, a team with a winning record by the way, 18-5 in OT with our All Conference player on the bench the entire game. On the bench not sulking because the team was doing fine without him (like most stars do), but acting like a little kid at Christmas with every shot that went out way. That was amazing to see. Truly rare. Something I will never forget.
Manuel will be a huge edition, I think McClendon gets better, Herman is showing signs of potentially being a solid front court player, Haney has flat out won games for this team this year and is only a Sophomore, who hadn't really played any meaningful basketball in two years. I get the "be more consistent" argument, good point, but he has missed very few clean looks this year and has been one of our best defenders the second half of the season. 25 pts and 7 rebounds from the guard position against a WCC team with a winning record speaks volumes for how dominant he could be for this team the next two years. Tutu and Brown are as quick a guard tandem as there is in the conference and will get better. I think Tutu is really the one who could blossom in the next couple of years in to an All Conference player. He is bigger than Brown, guards better and sees the floor better. I do not think a bombshell recruiting class makes or break a team with so much returning. I would bet there many not be another team in conference returning three double figure scorers for next season.
In short, time will tell. If I get criticized for being too optimistic that is fine, I will accept that, but my arguments are based on fact, not false hope.
I genuinely feel that as sad as it is to say, there are people on this board who were hoping this season would be a disaster and if you were at the USF game, you felt and saw a program going in the right direction. Not just winning, but winning with character kids and the type of student athletes we have not had at LMU for a while. The type of student athletes that can make the LMU alums and fans proud. That should matter. Go lions!
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2016 18:31:40 GMT -5
If there is a another 20 win year it will have to come next year with five seniors on the roster. We can have all the chemistry in the world but last I checked we were second to last in the wcc and played one of the softest non conference I can ever remember. Not to mention the league being the weakest in many many years.
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Post by rswan on Feb 21, 2016 18:47:49 GMT -5
a 20-8 Irvine team, Fullerton twice, an above 500 Pac 12 15-10 Oregon State, a 14-13 Colorado State team, a 17-10 Boise State team, ALL ON THE ROAD - How is that the "softest non conference" schedule you can remember? That is a statement flat out not supported by facts. There is no way anyone who remotely follows college basketball would look at those six games/opponents scheduled and say those were cupcakes and soft. Schedule a couple more DII teams, or low major DI's and you get to those 15-16 wins with your eyes closed.
Next year could be a 20 win season agreed with a good group coming back and I believe there is a nice foundation with Tutu, Haney, Herman, Manuel, McClendon, Spiers, and solid recruiting for the program to be moving in a positive direction. I can see where this is going, so I am out.
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Post by Deleted on Feb 21, 2016 19:54:12 GMT -5
Those were indeed the best teams lmu played and lost too. I believe the Irvine game as a pay back for a home and home schedule two years ago. Look at previous season there was much better opponents- last season for example. Lets look at the rest of the teams we played.
Fullerton 9-17 (2-11 in conference) Antelope Valley NAIA team Cal state northridge 10-17 (10-17 conference) Southeast Missouri state 5-23 (2-13 conference) Uc riverside 13-15 ( 4-8 in conference) Jacksonville state 8-21 (4-10 in conference)
All this being said I hope next year there are better teams on schedule... Especially at home.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Feb 21, 2016 20:55:56 GMT -5
Speaking of next year's schedule, I would like to see the Lions up against Long Beach State. It would be fun to see how we fare with Gabe Levin and Evan Payne on the other side of the court.
I'd also like us to play one or both of the local Pac 12 teams - UCLA and USC. We did play each of them in recent years and won both times. I don't expect that outcome again but it would be a fun tradition to start and a challenge for the team in the early going.
I'd also like to see us in a competitive mini-tournament during the pre-WCC season.
Regarding how the team is progressing, I am in general agreement that the trend is hopeful. I would argue a few of the positions posed for the players, e.g., I don't see Gipson at 6'2" as a SF but Spiers could fit there well. The new guys will have a period of adjustment excepting Manuel who is a real top prospect, but the team will enjoy having played together for one season already and that is a bonus.
I like the future. Thanks for the uplifting post to get the discussion going.
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Post by lmu2015 on Feb 21, 2016 21:24:58 GMT -5
I wouldn't put high expectations on Manuel, every D1 college player looks good in high school and in summer leagues. Manuel was once a top 60 prospect who's stock dropped his last couple years, and he obviously didn't do to well at Oregon. I'd expect him to be a solid player, maybe 7-10 points per game with a few boards, but I feel like too many people think he's going to be like Viney and put in 20 per game from day one.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Feb 21, 2016 21:57:18 GMT -5
lmu - Manuel did come from a Pac 12 school which generally has veteran players in the early rotation. He left mid season with some stats on the books which is OK in my mind. I don't expect great things in his first half-season with the Lions but he does have length and if Dunlap's conditioning regimen works well, he can contribute significantly next year.
I also think we may have one more recruit replacing someone on the current roster if my intuitions are correct. Or maybe Dunlap will do a Max and stay with "his" players whether they contribute or not. Depends on who he might find and convince to join the squad. We won't know until after the season is complete out of fairness to all involved.
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Post by lmu2015 on Feb 21, 2016 23:16:24 GMT -5
I think it would have to be spiers or Hayes if someone gets the boot. Especially with spiers getting benched for academic reasons last game that's not a good sign for his future. And to be honest I think spiers would be a great D2 player, he just doesn't have the athleticism to be a D1 forward. The guy can flat out shoot but he is 0 threat to drive and gets burned on D too often. He's a really nice guy and liked by everyone in the program, but I just don't see tons of potential. I almost feel bad saying that about him but I really do believe he could be a star at the D2 level.
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Post by rswan on Feb 22, 2016 13:44:07 GMT -5
I don't think anyone gets booted, but agree that Spiers is a one trick pony and flat out does not guard. Difference with he and Haney is that Haney has shown ability to hit pull up shots off the dribble and has towards the latter part of this season has been used as a big defender against other teams top scoring smaller shooting guards. Haney also has been good in the high post against Zones getting the ball at the elbows and facilitating. Neither Humphries, nor Spiers have that ability. I think McClendon should be getting more playing time because he will be a kid we will need in future years and I would hate to see him perhaps leave because his role is so minimal.
I will concede, given Manuel's instability, putting too much weight on him to produce is dicey at best. However, he was at one point a 5 star Top 25 National recruit and hurt that stock with being so transient. Hopefully he works on his frame and gets better. My excitement is that the kid is a floor spacer. He can shoot the perimeter shot and can put the ball on the floor, which is going to draw lots of help. In the USF game there was TREMENDOUS ball movement, which resulted in lots of clean open looks. Result, we score 100 points. This team is at its absolute worst when there is no ball movement and we get deep in the shot clock and Brown tries to do too much off the pick and roll, or we are taking a late shot clock three. There is a lot of criticism about shooting percentages and offensive inconsistency, but when the offense is not working to create mid shot clock decent looks, don't be surprised when the ball does not go in.
Last game I saw Mornar and Haney finally get ball rotating shot opportunities and they were not missing too many open looks. In fact, neither have most of the year. I have seen both shoot too many early contested shots, possibly because they too are worried about the pending late shot clock offense. Mornar had 19 and Haney had 25. The easy argument is that they are both "inconsistent" and "streaky", but my viewpoint is that when they both are getting good looks with good ball flow, they are different player and for their size both very good shooters.
Getting to 20 wins will be a challenge, but even voicing it sounds nice. I personally am most pleased to see just how gritty this group is and how many charges and loose balls they get after on the floor. Last year's team never played this hard, or seemed to care as much as this group does.
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Post by LIONS90045 on Feb 22, 2016 21:47:16 GMT -5
Lmu2015 – wow – is that why Spiers was not dressed, academics? What about Tauch? Is he out also. I don’t think they have a new grading period until the Spring to recover so are both (or at least Spiers) done for the year? In any case, I think Spiers is an OK asset on the team – a tall guard with a good (but erratic) outside shot. I am biased a bit toward taller guards excepting the PG.
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Post by thx4leavinjimlynam on Feb 22, 2016 22:33:12 GMT -5
Per TV commentators on Saturday, Tuach hurt his elbow against Sants Clara. That is why he was out.
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